查看“︁磷峰值”︁的源代码

[[File:Phosphateproductionworldwide.svg|缩略图|300x300像素|美国地质调查局统计的1900年－2016年全球磷灰石产量<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/phosphate_rock/|title=USGS Minerals Information: Phosphate Rock|accessdate=2018-09-16|last=Jasinski|first=Stephen|work=minerals.usgs.gov|language=en|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180722011617/https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/phosphate_rock/|archive-date=2018-07-22|dead-url=no}}</ref>|替代=]]

'''磷峰值'''<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://news.sciencenet.cn/sbhtmlnews/2011/4/243048.html|title=科学网—化学家警告全球磷峰值到来|accessdate=2018-09-16|work=news.sciencenet.cn|archive-date=2018-09-24|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180924110125/http://news.sciencenet.cn/sbhtmlnews/2011/4/243048.html|dead-url=no}}</ref>（{{Lang-en|Peak phosphorus}}）描述人类为开采工业和商业[[原材料]]达到最高磷产率的时间点，这一说法受到[[石油峰值]]（哈伯特顶点）理论的启发。<ref name=":0">{{Cite journal|title=The story of phosphorus: Global food security and food for thought|url=https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.10.009|last=Cordell|first=Dana|last2=Drangert|first2=Jan-Olof|date=2009-05|journal=Global Environmental Change|issue=2|doi=10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.10.009|volume=19|pages=292–305|issn=0959-3780|last3=White|first3=Stuart}}</ref>在2010年左右，曾经有过关于磷峰值是否即将到来的讨论，但当美国地质调查局提高了可开采磷资源的预估量后，讨论才逐渐平息。<ref name=":1">{{Cite journal|title=Recent revisions of phosphate rock reserves and resources: a critique|url=https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/5/491/2014/|last=Edixhoven|first=J. D.|last2=Gupta|first2=J.|date=2014-12-19|journal=Earth Syst. Dynam.|issue=2|doi=10.5194/esd-5-491-2014|volume=5|pages=491–507|issn=2190-4987|last3=Savenije|first3=H. H. G.|author=|access-date=2018-09-16|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180819010914/https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/5/491/2014/|archive-date=2018-08-19|dead-url=no}}</ref>

磷是在地球地壳和生物体中广泛分布的资源，但因其并非在地球上平均分布，故而集中率低，极为[[稀缺性|珍稀]]。开采磷矿中的[[磷灰石]]是目前唯一经济的产磷方案，然而只有[[摩洛哥]]、[[中华人民共和国|中国]]、[[阿尔及利亚]]和[[叙利亚]]等国拥有大量磷矿石。对未来产量的预估依数据模型的不同和可开采量的判断大相径庭。不可否认的是，在可以预见的将来，摩洛哥将显著影响今后的磷矿石产量。<ref>{{Cite journal|title=Phosphate rock production and depletion: Regional disaggregated modeling and global implications|url=https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2014.10.011|last=Walan|first=Petter|last2=Davidsson|first2=Simon|date=2014-12|journal=Resources, Conservation and Recycling|doi=10.1016/j.resconrec.2014.10.011|volume=93|pages=178–187|issn=0921-3449|last3=Johansson|first3=Sheshti|last4=Höök|first4=Mikael}}</ref>

因为磷的[[生物地球化学循环]]不包含气态，所以除了采矿外几乎没有其他适合的商业制磷方法。<ref>{{Cite journal|title=Global phosphorus scarcity: identifying synergies for a sustainable future|url=http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jsfa.4650/full|last=Neset|first=Tina‐Simone S|last2=Cordell|first2=Dana|date=2012-01-15|journal=Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture|issue=1|doi=10.1002/jsfa.4650/full|volume=92|language=en|issn=1097-0010|author=|access-date=2018-09-16|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171117074220/http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jsfa.4650/full|archive-date=2017-11-17|dead-url=no}}</ref>一些研究人员认为，地球上可供商业开采、成本低廉的磷资源预计将在50－100年后枯竭，磷峰值将会出现在2030年<ref name=":0" /><ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.foodandwatersecurity.net/data/172.pdf|title=Scientists warn of lack of vital phosphorus as biofuels raise demands|accessdate=2018-09-16|author=|date=2011-07-23|publisher=Times Online|archive-date=2011-07-23|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110723130701/http://www.foodandwatersecurity.net/data/172.pdf|dead-url=unfit}}</ref>；另一些人员则相信地球的磷资源还可供开采几百年<ref name=":2">{{Cite web|url=http://www.ifdc.org/Media_Center/Press_Releases/September_2010/IFDC_Report_Indicates_Adequate_Phosphorus_Resource/IFDC_Report_Indicates_Adequate_Phosphorus_Resource|title=IFDC Report Indicates Adequate Phosphorus Resources|accessdate=|author=|date=2010-09|publisher=IFDC.org|archive-date=2020-01-27|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200127003215/https://ifdc.org/Media_Center/Press_Releases/September_2010/IFDC_Report_Indicates_Adequate_Phosphorus_Resource/IFDC_Report_Indicates_Adequate_Phosphorus_Resource|dead-url=yes}}</ref>。正如对石油峰值的预估一样，磷峰值将何时出现的问题仍然没有准确的答案，而不同领域的学者们会定期发布磷矿石保有量的最新评估。<ref name=":1" />
== 背景 ==
磷峰值的提出基于{{Tsl|en|Planetary boundary|地球临界理论}}。这一理论为[[工业革命]]以来人类活动对自然的影响的9个方面划分了临界点，只要人类把活动控制在临界点内，人类就能“安全”地在地球上生存。<ref name=":1" />磷峰值属于其中一个方面。

== 全球磷保有量的估算 ==
[[File:US Mined Phosphate Rock 1900-2015.png|缩略图|266x266像素|美国自1900－2015年间的磷矿开采量]]
[[File:Global distribution of commercial reserves of rock phosphate USGS 2016; GTK 2015.jpg|缩略图|245x245像素|2016年全球商业磷矿石保有量<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://dakofa.com/fileadmin/user_upload/1600_Arno_Rosemarin_Stockholm_Environment_Institute.pdf|title=Phosphorus a Limited Resource – Closing the Loop,|accessdate=|author=Arno Rosemarin|date=|publisher=Global Status of Phosphorus Conference, Malmö, Sweden|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170321082704/https://dakofa.com/fileadmin/user_upload/1600_Arno_Rosemarin_Stockholm_Environment_Institute.pdf|archive-date=2017-03-21|dead-url=no}}</ref>]]

磷峰值究竟将于何时到来取决于全球可用的磷资源（尤其是磷灰石）保有量。保有量指的是以目前的市场价能够开采的设想量，而资源指的是合理期望下可经济实惠地提取的磷矿。<ref name=":3">{{Cite book|url=https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/828521325|title=Our nutrient world : the challenge to produce more food and energy with less pollution|last=A.|first=Sutton, Mark|last2=(Clare)|first2=Howard, C. M.|last3=W.|first3=Erisman, J.|last4=P.|first4=Abrol, Y.|last5=M.|first5=Bekunda,|last6=A.|first6=Datta,|last7=W.|first7=De Vries,|last8=O.|first8=Oenema,|last9=S.|first9=Zhang, F.|date=2013|publisher=Centre for Ecology & Hydrology on behalf of the Global Partnership on Nutrient Management (GPNM) and the International Nitrogen Initiative (INI)|year=|isbn=9781906698409|location=Edinburgh|pages=|oclc=828521325}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=http://web.cim.org/userfiles/file/cim_definiton_standards_nov_2010.pdf|title=CIM DEFINITION STANDARDS - For Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves.|accessdate=|author=|date=2010|publisher=|pages=4-6|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170808032247/http://web.cim.org/UserFiles/File/CIM_DEFINITON_STANDARDS_Nov_2010.pdf|archive-date=2017-08-08|dead-url=yes}}</ref>

按质量计算，未经处理过的磷灰石中约含有1.7%－8.7%的磷（[[五氧化二磷]]含有4%－20%的磷）；比较起来，一般岩石中含有约0.1%的磷<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2004/1368/Soil_PDFs/P_soils_page.pdf|title=Phosphorus Soil Samples|accessdate=|author=美国地质局|date=|publisher=|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170429130531/https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2004/1368/Soil_PDFs/P_soils_page.pdf|archive-date=2017-04-29|dead-url=no}}</ref>，而绿色植物含有0.03%－0.2%<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.seafriends.org.nz/oceano/abund.htm|title=Abundance of essential elements|accessdate=2018-09-23|last=Anthoni|first=Floor|work=www.seafriends.org.nz|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180309180635/http://www.seafriends.org.nz/oceano/abund.htm|archive-date=2018-03-09|dead-url=no}}</ref>。这意味着，尽管地壳含有大概<math>10^{15}</math>吨的磷<ref>{{Cite journal|title=Mass and Composition of the Continental Crust Estimated Using the CRUST2.0 Model|url=http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.V33A1161P|last=T.|first=Peterson, B.|last2=J.|first2=Depaolo, D.|date=2007-12|journal=AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts|language=en|access-date=2018-09-23|archive-date=2019-01-27|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190127015302/http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.V33A1161P|dead-url=no}}</ref>，但选择开采这些材料并不实惠。

美国地质调查局在2017年指出，全世界范围内可供经济开采的磷保有量为680亿吨，而2016年世界矿业产量仅为2亿6100万吨。<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/phosphate_rock/mcs-2017-phosp.pdf|title=Mineral Commodity Summaries|accessdate=|author=Jasinski, SM|date=2017-01|publisher=美国地质调查局|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170513090854/https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/phosphate_rock/mcs-2017-phosp.pdf|archive-date=2017-05-13|dead-url=no}}</ref>假设保有量不再增长，现有的磷仍足够开采260年。这与{{Tsl|en|International Fertilizer Development Center|国际肥料发展中心}}（IFDC）在2010年的报告内容大体吻合。<ref name=":2" /><ref>{{Cite news|url=http://ifdc.org/technical-bulletins/|title=Technical Bulletins|date=2015-01-06|newspaper=IFDC|accessdate=2018-09-23|language=en-US|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180819051418/https://ifdc.org/technical-bulletins/|archive-date=2018-08-19|dead-url=yes}}</ref>然而具体的数量仍然未知，且仍处于争议之中。<ref name=":3" /><ref>{{Cite journal|title=Peak Phosphorus: Clarifying the Key Issues of a Vigorous Debate about Long-Term Phosphorus Security|url=http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/3/10/2027|last=Cordell|first=Dana|last2=White|first2=Stuart|date=2011-10-24|journal=Sustainability|issue=10|doi=10.3390/su3102027|volume=3|pages=2027–2049|language=en|last3=Cordell|first3=Dana|last4=White|first4=Stuart|author=|access-date=2018-09-23|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180108155511/http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/3/10/2027|archive-date=2018-01-08|dead-url=no}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|title=Phosphorus demand for the 1970–2100 period: A scenario analysis of resource depletion|url=https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.04.004|last=Van Vuuren|first=D.P.|last2=Bouwman|first2=A.F.|date=2010-08|journal=Global Environmental Change|issue=3|doi=10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.04.004|volume=20|pages=428–439|issn=0959-3780|last3=Beusen|first3=A.H.W.}}</ref>科学新闻记者娜塔莎·吉尔伯特认为外部缺少对估计量的证实。<ref>{{Cite journal|title=Environment: The disappearing nutrient|url=https://doi.org/10.1038/461716a|last=Gilbert|first=Natasha|date=2009-10-08|journal=Nature|issue=7265|doi=10.1038/461716a|volume=461|pages=716–718|language=en|issn=0028-0836}}</ref>2014年的一份评论<ref name=":1" />总结IFDC的报告称，其“过高估计了磷的保有量——尤其是在摩洛哥的保有量，因为他们把那里假想的、推定的资源当成了实际存在的东西”。

磷灰石短缺会显著影响世界[[食品安全]]。<ref>{{Cite journal|title=Soil and human security in the 21st century|url=http://science.sciencemag.org/content/348/6235/1261071|last=Amundson|first=Ronald|last2=Berhe|first2=Asmeret Asefaw|date=2015-05-08|journal=Science|issue=6235|doi=10.1126/science.1261071|volume=348|pages=1261071|language=en|issn=0036-8075|pmid=25954014|last3=Hopmans|first3=Jan W.|last4=Olson|first4=Carolyn|last5=Sztein|first5=A. Ester|last6=Sparks|first6=Donald L.|author=|access-date=2018-09-23|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180723034328/http://science.sciencemag.org/content/348/6235/1261071|archive-date=2018-07-23|dead-url=no}}</ref>许多农业系统依赖以磷灰石为原料的无机肥。在农业系统不改变的前提下，肥料供应就会不足，进而导致食物短缺。<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/62290639|title=The omnivore's dilemma : a natural history of four meals|last=Michael,|first=Pollan,|date=2006|publisher=Penguin Press|year=|isbn=1594200823|location=New York|pages=|chapter=|oclc=62290639|access-date=2018-09-23|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091112214740/http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/62290639|archive-date=2009-11-12|dead-url=no}}</ref>经济学家认为，磷灰石的价格波动不一定暗示磷峰值何时到来，因为价格是随着供求双方的各种因素而随时改变的。<ref>{{Cite journal|title=Global availability of phosphorus and its implications for global food supply: An economic overview|author=Heckenmüller, M.; Narita, D.; Klepper, G.|url=http://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/90630/1/776834355.pdf|journal=Kiel Working Paper|issue=1897|doi=|others=|year=2014|volume=|page=|pmid=|access-date=2018-09-23|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160304075003/http://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/90630/1/776834355.pdf|archive-date=2016-03-04|dead-url=no}}</ref>

=== 鸟粪下的磷资源 ===
西班牙作家[[印卡·加西拉索·德拉維加|加西拉索]]在其著作《[[印卡王室述評|印卡王室述评]]》（1609）中描述了印加人在西班牙人前来殖民前的农业实践，如使用[[海鸟粪]]作肥料等。<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/61341325|title=The world's greatest fix : a history of nitrogen and agriculture|last=J.|first=Leigh, G.|date=2004|publisher=Oxford University Press|year=|isbn=1423720830|location=Oxford|pages=|chapter=|oclc=61341325}}</ref>

19世纪早期，[[亚历山大·冯·洪堡]]在南美洲岛屿上发现鸟粪后将这种施肥方法带给欧洲。据报道，鸟粪被发现时已经在岛上积攒了30米深。<ref name=":4" />[[莫切文化|莫切人]]发掘了这个鸟粪“矿”，并把鸟粪带回秘鲁。而真正意义上的鸟粪国际贸易于1840年才开始。

== 节约和回收磷 ==
[[File:Monsanto phosphorus plant, Soda Springs, Idaho, 2010.jpg|缩略图|267x267像素|美国爱达荷州的[[孟山都]]公司的一间磷处理厂]]

如同其他元素，磷可以在食物网上沿着营养级流动，进入世界各地人们的消化系统。消化吸收完成后，人的{{Tsl|en|open defecation|室外排泄}}会让磷元素重归自然世界以被[[大豆]]等作物吸收，或是通过下水道、[[污水處理|污水处理]]厂进入江河湖海，加入[[生物圈]]的[[水循环]]。为了推迟磷峰值的到来，农业和卫生领域已有多种重复利用磷元素、减少磷排放的做法。英国的有机农业认证组织{{Tsl|en|Soil Association|土地联盟}}在2010年发布了鼓励进一步回收利用磷资源的报告。<ref name=":4">{{Cite web|url=http://www.soilassociation.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=eeGPQJORrkw%3D&tabid=57|title=soilassociation.org - A rock and a hard place, Peak phosphorus and the threat to our food security|accessdate=2018-09-18|author=|date=2010|publisher=|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20101223135324/http://soilassociation.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=eeGPQJORrkw=&tabid=57|archivedate=2010-10-23}}</ref>有学者认为，解决磷资源短缺的有效方法之一就是加强回收人和动物的排泄物。<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.miller-mccune.com/science-environment/the-story-of-pee-8736/|title=Peak Phosphorus May Follow Peak Oil - Miller-McCune|accessdate=2018-09-18|date=2012-01-07|archive-date=2012-01-07|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120107014214/http://www.miller-mccune.com/science-environment/the-story-of-pee-8736/|dead-url=unfit}}</ref>

=== 农业生产 ===
减少土地流失和侵蚀能够降低农民施磷肥的频率。进行{{Tsl|en|no-till farming|无耕作农业}}、使用[[梯田]]、种植[[防風林|防风林]]都是已知的降低磷流失的办法。这些办法仍然需要农民定期在田地里加入磷石才能发挥作用；而回收已经流失的磷资源的其他方案尚在建议阶段。如草地和森林等常青植物分布的土地，吸收磷的效率通常比耕地高，如果在草地和河流之间种植树林绿化带，就能加强防止磷元素和其他营养物质流失入水。<ref>{{Cite journal|title=Phosphorus and nitrogen losses in relation to forest, pasture and row-crop land use and precipitation distribution in the midwest usa|url=https://doi.org/10.7202/1006477ar|last=Udawatta|first=Ranjith P.|last2=Henderson|first2=Gray S.|date=2011|journal=Revue des sciences de l'eau|issue=3|doi=10.7202/1006477ar|volume=24|pages=269|language=en|issn=0992-7158|last3=Jones|first3=John R.|last4=Hammer|first4=David}}</ref>

=== 污水处理 ===
自2003年左右开始，瑞典和德国已经在研究从污水中提取出磷，但因为世界市场上磷的价格居高不下，目前的污水提纯技术成本仍然非常高。<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.susana.org/en/knowledge-hub/resources-and-publications/library/details/1304|title=Phosphorus recovery from wastewater – state-of-the-art and future potential - Resources • SuSanA|accessdate=2018-09-18|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180819082843/https://www.susana.org/en/knowledge-hub/resources-and-publications/library/details/1304|archive-date=2018-08-19|dead-url=no}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.susana.org/en/knowledge-hub/resources-and-publications/library/details/436|title=Phosphorus Recovery from Sludge in Sweden - Resources • SuSanA|accessdate=2018-09-18|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180819182158/https://www.susana.org/en/knowledge-hub/resources-and-publications/library/details/436|archive-date=2018-08-19|dead-url=no}}</ref>

== 参考资料 ==
{{Reflist|3}}

[[Category:磷]]
[[Category:礦業]]