查看“︁威廉·戈塞”︁的源代码

{{noteTA
|G1 = Math
|1 = zh-tw:高斯特;zh-cn:戈塞;zh-hk:戈塞;
}}
{{Infobox scientist
|name              = 威廉·希利·戈塞<br>William Sealy Gosset
|image             = William Sealy Gosset.jpg
|image_size        = 240px
|caption           = 1908年的威廉·希利·戈塞
|birth_date        = {{Birth date|df=yes|1876|06|13}}
|birth_place       = {{UK}}[[肯特郡]][[坎特伯雷|-{zh-tw:坎特伯里;zh-cn:坎特伯雷}-]]
|death_date        = {{death date and age|df=yes|1937|10|16|1876|06|13}}
|death_place       = {{UK}}[[白金漢郡]][[坎特伯雷|-{zh-tw:比肯斯菲尔德;zh-cn:比更士菲}-]]
|residence         = 
|other_names       = 司徒頓
|citizenship       = 
|alma_mater        = [[牛津大學新學院]]<br/>[[溫徹斯特公學]]
|known_for         = [[司徒頓t分布]]<br>[[顯著性差異]]<br>[[實驗設計]]<br>[[蒙地卡羅方法]]<br>[[品質管制]]<br>[[現代演化綜論]]<br>[[農業經濟學]]<br>[[計量經濟學]]
|children          = 5名，包括{{le|艾薩克·亨利·戈塞|Isaac Henry Gosset}}
|prizes            = 
|field             = 
|work_institutions = {{le|吉尼斯啤酒廠|Guinness Brewery}}
|influences        = {{le|威廉·阿奇博爾德·斯普納|William Archibald Spooner}}<br>[[卡爾·皮爾森]]
|influenced        = [[羅納德·愛爾默·費雪]]<br>[[哈羅德·傑弗里斯]]<br>[[埃貢·皮爾遜]]<br>[[耶日·內曼]]<br>{{le|約翰·維希特|John Wishart (statistician)}}<br>[[愛德華茲·戴明]]<br>Edwin S. Beaven<br>Herbert Hunter
}}
'''威廉·希利·戈塞'''（{{lang|en|'''William Sealy Gosset'''}}，{{bd|1876年|6月13日|1937年|10月16日|catIdx=G}}）是一位[[英國]][[化學家]]、[[數學家]]與[[統計學家]]，以筆名「'''司徒頓'''」（Student）著名，是小样本理论研究的先驱，統計學上最常使用的[[司徒頓t分布]]與[[司徒頓t檢定]]即為他所發明。

== 生平与研究 ==

=== 早年经历 ===
戈塞出生于英国肯特郡坎特伯雷市，求学于曼彻斯特学院和牛津大学，主要学习化学和数学。1899年，戈塞毕业后进入都柏林的A.吉尼斯父子酿酒厂从事实验和数据分析工作，在那里他可得到一大堆有关酿造方法、原料特性和成品质量之间关系的统计数据。提高大麦质量的重要性最终促使他研究农田试验计划，并于1904年写成第一篇报告《误差法则应用》。<ref>{{Cite web |title=威廉·戈塞 - MBA智库百科 |url=https://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/%E5%A8%81%E5%BB%89%C2%B7%E6%88%88%E5%A1%9E |access-date=2022-11-26 |website=wiki.mbalib.com |archive-date=2022-12-03 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221203202443/https://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/%E5%A8%81%E5%BB%89%C2%B7%E6%88%88%E5%A1%9E |dead-url=no }}</ref>

=== 统计学研究 ===
在戈塞之前，统计学的数据一般都是大量的，所用的方法多以中心极限定理为依据，归结为正态，当时统计界的权威[[卡尔·皮尔逊|K.皮尔逊]]就认为正态分布是上帝赐给人们唯一正确的分布。但到了20世纪初，受人工控制的实验条件下所得数据的统计分析问题日渐引人注意，此时的数据量一般不大，故仅依赖于中心极限定理的传统方法开始受到质疑，戈塞和[[羅納德·愛爾默·費雪|费希尔]]即为这个方向的先驱。

由于戈塞接触的样本容量都比较小，只有四五个，通过大量实验数据的积累，戈塞发现<math>t=\sqrt{n}(\bar{x}-\mu)/s</math>的分布与传统的标准正态分布不同，特别是尾部概率相差较大。由此，戈塞怀疑是否有另一个分布族存在，但他的统计学功底不足以解决他发现的问题，于是戈塞于1906至1907年到K.皮尔逊那里学习统计学，并着重研究少量数据的统计分析问题。<ref>{{Cite book|title=概率论与数理统计教程|publisher=高等教育出版社|isbn=978-7-04-051148-2|year=2019|location=北京|last=茆诗松，程依明，濮晓龙}}</ref>

=== 显著成就 ===
1908年他在Biometrika杂志上以笔名Student（即司徒顿，因工厂不允许其发表论文）发表了使他名垂统计史册的论文：均值的或然误差（The Probable Error of a Mean）。在这篇文章中，他提出了t分布的存在，打破了正态分布一统天下的局面，开创了小样本统计推断的新纪元，在统计学史上具有划时代的意义。

== 参考文献 ==
{{reflist}}




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==生平==
Born in [[Canterbury]], [[England]] to Agnes Sealy Vidal and Colonel Frederic Gosset, Gosset attended [[Winchester College]], the famous private school, before reading [[chemistry]] and [[mathematics]] at [[New College, Oxford]].  On graduating in [[1899]], he joined the [[Dublin]] brewery of Arthur [[Guinness]] & Son.

[[Guinness]] was a progressive agro-chemical business and Gosset would apply his statistical knowledge both in the brewery and on the farm—to the selection of the best yielding varieties of [[barley]]. Gosset acquired that knowledge by study, trial and error and by spending two terms in 1906/7 in the biometric laboratory of [[Karl Pearson]]. Gosset and [[Karl Pearson|Pearson]] had a good relationship and Pearson helped Gosset with the mathematics of his papers. [[Karl Pearson|Pearson]] helped with the 1908 papers but he had little appreciation of their importance. The papers addressed the brewer's concern with small samples, while the biometrician typically had hundreds of observations and saw no urgency in developing small-sample methods.

Another researcher at Guinness had previously published a paper containing trade secrets of the Guinness brewery. To prevent further disclosure of confidential information, Guinness prohibited its employees from publishing any papers regardless of the contained information. This meant that Gosset was unable to publish his works under his own name. He therefore used the pseudonym ''Student'' for his publications to avoid their detection by his employer. Thus his most famous achievement is now referred to as the [[Student's t-distribution|Student t-distribution]], which might otherwise have been the Gosset t-distribution. 

Using this pseudonym [[Karl Pearson|Pearson]] published ''The probable error of a mean'' and almost all of Gosset's papers in his journal ''[[Biometrika]]''. However, it was [[Ronald Fisher|R.A. Fisher]] who appreciated the importance of Gosset's small-sample work, after Gosset had written to him to say ''I am sending you a copy of Student's Tables as you are the only man that's ever likely to use them!''. Fisher believed that Gosset had effected a “logical revolution”. Ironically the ''t''-statistic for which Gosset is famous was actually Fisher's creation. Gosset's statistic was ''z''&nbsp;=&nbsp;''t''/√(''n''&nbsp;-&nbsp;1). Fisher introduced the ''t''-form because it fitted in with his theory of [[Degrees of freedom (statistics)|degrees of freedom]]. Fisher was also responsible for the applications of the ''t''-distribution to regression.

Although introduced by others, [[Studentized residual]]s are named in Student's honor because, like the problem that led to Student's t-distribution, the idea of adjusting for estimated standard deviations is central to that concept.

Gosset's interest in [[barley]] cultivation led him to speculate that [[design of experiments]] should aim, not only at improving the average yield, but also at breeding varieties whose yield was insensitive (robust) to variation in soil and climate. This principle only occurs in the later thought of [[Ronald Fisher|Fisher]] and then in the work of [[Genichi Taguchi]] in the [[1950s]].

In [[1935]], he left [[Dublin]] to take up the position of Head Brewer, in charge of the scientific side of production, at a new [[Guinness]] brewery in London.  He died in [[Beaconsfield]], [[England]] of a heart attack<ref>{{cite web
| url = http://www.aam314.vzz.net/Gosset.html
| title = William Sealy Gosset's Obituary 
| accessdate = 2007-02-09
|date= 
| work = 
| publisher = 
}}</ref>.

Gosset was a friend of both [[Karl Pearson|Pearson]] and [[Ronald Fisher|Fisher]], an achievement, for each had a massive ego and a loathing for the other. Gosset was a modest man who cut short an admirer with the comment that “Fisher would have discovered it all anyway.”

== 著作 ==
* ''The application of the law of error to the work of the Brewery'' ([[1904]], nota interna presso ''Guinness'')
* ''On the error of counting with hæmacytometer,'' Biometrika, Vol. 5, No. 3. (Feb.), pp. 351-360 ([[1907]])
* [http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/student.pdf ''The probable error of a mean,'' Biometrika, Vol. 6, No. 1. (Mar.), pp. 1-25] ([[1908]])
* ''Probable error of a correlation coefficient,'' Biometrika, Vol. 6, No. 2/3. (Sep.), pp. 302-310.([[1908]])
* ''The distribution of the means of samples which are not drawn at random,'' Biometrika, Vol. 7, No. 1/2. (Jul. - Oct.), pp. 210-214 ([[1909]])
* ''An experimental determination of the probable error of Dr Spearman's correlation coefficients,'' Biometrika, Vol. 13, No. 2/3. (Jul.), pp. 263-282. ([[1921]])
*[http://www.economics.soton.ac.uk/staff/aldrich/fisherguide/student.htm ''Review of Statistical Methods for Research Workers (R. A. Fisher)''] ([[1926]])
* ''‘Student’s’ Collected Papers'' (edited by E.S. Pearson and John Wishart, with a foreword by Launce McMullen), London: Biometrika Office. ([[1942]])

== 傳記 ==
*[[E. S. Pearson]] (1990) ''‘Student’, A Statistical Biography of William Sealy Gosset,'' Edited and Augmented by R. L. Plackett with the Assistance of G. A. Barnard, Oxford: University Press.
*E. S. Pearson, "'Student' as Statistician, ''Biometrika'' Vol. 30, No. 3/4 (Jan., 1939), pp. 210-250.

== 參考資料 ==
<references/>

== 外部連結 ==
*[http://www.swlearning.com/quant/kohler/stat/biographical_sketches/bio12.1.html Biography by Heinz Kohler]
*[http://www.umass.edu/wsp/statistics/tales/gosset.html Tales of Statisticians by E. Bruce Brooks]
*[http://www-stat.stanford.edu/~naras/jsm/TDensity/TDensity.html Student's T Distribution]
For a brief account of how Student's ''z'' became ''t'' see the entry on Student's ''t''-distribution in
*[http://members.aol.com/jeff570/s.html Earliest known uses of some of the words of mathematics: S]
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<references group="参考文献：《概率论与数理统计教程》第三版，茆诗松，程依明，濮晓龙" responsive="" />
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{{DEFAULTSORT:Gosset, William}}
[[Category:坎特伯雷人]]
[[Category:英國化學家]]
[[Category:英格兰统计学家]]
[[Category:温彻斯特公学校友]]
[[Category:牛津大学新学院校友]]
[[Category:肯特郡人 (1965年前)]]